How worried should we be about Global Pandemics?

Since I started working with the AIDS program at NIH in 1985, I have been worried about Pandemics. Partly, I attribute this worry to the fact that the Director of the newly formed AIDS Program at the time was the former Director of Pandemic Flu preparedness for the NIAID, Dr. John LaMontagne.

However, there was also the general feeling that infectious diseases were emerging at alarming rates. It seemed that every other week I was learning about a new potential pandemic threat. There was, and is, Ebola, SARS, Bird Flu (or Avian Flu), even the ancient Plague could not be ruled out as a possibility for re-visiting our global population.

Recently, the risk of Pandemics has come into question. An article in the Journal of Emerging Infectious Diseases in February suggests that it was strep, and not the Spanish Flu, that killed millions during the 1918 Pandemic.

Just yesterday the Washington Post had an interesting article by Philip Alcabes entitled ’5 Myths about Pandemic Panic.‘ Alcabes writes of the reality of the potential for another major pandemic, including questioning the usefulness of looking to the past for ideas about how to prevent future pandemics.

What I think I enjoyed most about his article, was the last of the ‘myths’ in which he postulates that it is a myth to assume that ‘There is not such thing as being too prepared.’ He believes that we are spending too many resources on useless preparations.

Given the need to re-evalute every penny being spent on health care and health care prevention efforts, perhaps he is on to something.